Analysis of steel trend in late October

Analysis of steel trend in late October recently, the National Bureau of statistics released important economic data for the third quarter of 2012, showing that the national GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 7.4%, basically in line with market expectations, and the decline slowed significantly; According to analysts, in the fourth quarter, stimulated by the continuous implementation of relevant policies by the state, the domestic economic trend will be better and better, and the demand for steel will show an increasing trend of rigidity. Yuan Fang, how can you increase the recycling and reuse of plastic waste

for the iron and steel industry, which continues to suffer losses, the operation of economic data has stabilized, just like the land that welcomes showers after a long drought, it is bound to usher in a new climate; According to the survey of local steel markets on the same day, most steel traders are optimistic about the market operation in the fourth quarter, and their willingness to pull up is very obvious, but some steel traders are still pessimistic and hard to change. They believe that the current crude steel output has returned to a high level of more than 1.9 million tons, and the enthusiasm of steel mills' production is boosted by the positive future, which is likely to further heat up, However, the demand for terminal steel is further weakened by the reduction of winter construction in the north, and it is considered unlikely that the steel price will rise again in the later period

the GDP growth rate in the previous three quarters showed a step-by-step growth trend of 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2%; The month on month growth rate continued to expand; The data shows that the worst time point in this round of "economic weakness" has passed, and the domestic economy is developing well. Premier Wen Jiabao previously pointed out that in the fourth quarter, with the further implementation of various policies and measures, China's economy will further stabilize

in this regard, we believe that if there is a loose market in the later stage, the bulk commodity market and futures market will be boosted synchronously, and there is a great possibility of a small rebound. The overall external environment of the steel market has ushered in a fundamental improvement

however, the author is also relatively cautious about whether it can immediately increase the demand for steel in downstream industries; In other words, the recovery of economic trend does not mean the increase of steel demand, which has a certain lag; Whether the fundamentals of steel demand in the fourth quarter can perform well depends mainly on whether the policies and measures previously issued by the state can quickly form actual productivity, whether the investment in real estate development can really rebound, and whether the financing situation of railway construction can be fundamentally improved

in terms of the implementation of policies and measures, although national leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao, have repeatedly emphasized the further implementation of economic stimulus policies, the major investment projects released at the end of May are currently making relatively slow progress. Except for the left behind personnel, the construction site of Baosteel Zhanjiang iron and steel project is full of weeds. Baosteel has no specific timetable for the full commencement of the project, and other projects are generally the same, The reason is that the market downturn has led decision makers to take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the financing situation is not optimistic, which restricts the progress of the project in many ways, and the expected release of steel demand has been greatly compressed

in terms of real estate investment, railway and other infrastructure projects, according to the data of the first three quarters released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national real estate development investment was 5104.6 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year nominal increase of 15.4% (the actual increase after deducting price factors was 13.8%), and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with the month; In terms of railway construction, the railway fixed asset investment from January to September this year was 344.156 billion yuan. On the 10th of this month, the Ministry of Railways raised the investment plan for the year again, with a total scale of 630 billion yuan; In other words, if we want to complete the annual plan in the remaining three months, we need to invest nearly 300 billion yuan. How to get the funds is still the biggest obstacle restricting the railway infrastructure in the fourth quarter

in the secondary industry, industrial investment was 11074.5 billion yuan, an increase of 22.5%, an increase of 3.5% Storage of conditions of tensile stripping testing machine: the experimental control data and sample conditions can be made into modules, and the speed is 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the month; Among them, the investment in mining industry was 885.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%, and the growth rate fell by 1.2 percentage points; The investment in manufacturing industry was 9011.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5%, and the growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points

in the later stage, the supply-demand relationship in the domestic steel market tends to be tight, and at the same time, the function of data recording and simulation reproduction with the experimental process has almost become a foregone conclusion. First, the seasonal off-season of steel consumption is coming. In the past two days, it has begun to snow in northern Gansu and other places. With the climate slowly turning cold, the progress of outdoor engineering projects in northern areas will be greatly reduced, and the consumption of construction steel such as rebar and wire rod will encounter a bottleneck, Now it depends on whether the winter storage of steel in the local market this year can form a scale, and the improvement of the economic situation is worth looking forward to, but it still needs to see whether the country can introduce enough attractive policies after the 18th National Congress

on the other hand, the steel plant finally increased production significantly after making a profit of 300 yuan per ton of steel. In the first ten days of October, the average daily crude steel returned to 1.9 million tons, reaching 1.9162 million tons; At present, the capacity utilization rate of northern steel is over 92%, and there is still room for further increase in production in the later stage. In view of this, we believe that the domestic steel market is still relatively tight in the later stage